Offshore Wind Power 2010
BTM Consult ApS has today launched a 120 page report on Offshore Wind Power Development.
The report reviews the status of offshore wind power exploitation as of October 2010, with 3.16 GW of offshore capacity currently operational. A comprehensive assessment of the industry’s project pipeline forms the basis for a five year forecast. This indicates that more than 16 GW of additional capacity will be installed before the end of 2014. The UK and Germany will be the two leading markets.
Projections to 2020
Projections by BTM Consult show that in the medium term offshore wind capacity will reach a total of 75 GW worldwide by 2020. So far almost all deployment has taken place in Northern Europe, a situation expected to continue for another five years. Beyond 2015 a significant contribution will come from China, with the US making a more modest input. The three regions focused on in this report are Europe, Asia and North America.
Supply chain for offshore wind
Development of cost efficient offshore wind power plants is still at the early learning stage. The report examines the technology in use today as well as emerging products and services. An in-depth study of “balance of plant” services has been carried out. This covers construction, cabling, foundations, substations and the vessels needed to facilitate offshore development. More than 200 major players in the industry have been identified and grouped into their respective fields of competence and supply options. The supply chain for offshore wind turbines is narrower than on land. This is due to the size of components demanded and the very high quality requirements. Reliability in offshore wind power plant is essential given the high costs involved in servicing turbines in a harsh marine environment.
The report reviews the available offshore resources in the three world regions. This shows that resource will never be a limiting factor for development. In the US there is the potential for four times the total electricity capacity installed today, in Europe it equals around nine times total electricity consumption, and in China a potential for 200 GW is identified.
Regulations and incentives in the major offshore wind markets are examined. In Europe, legislation, a regulatory regime and strong incentive schemes to facilitate development are all in place. It is recognised by the European Union’s Council of Ministers that offshore wind is an essential element in achieving its “20 % by 2020” target for reducing greenhouse gases, as well as improving security of supply.
Offshore market dominated by a few companies
On the demand side ten companies or consortia account for all of the 3 GW of offshore capacity presently operational. Dong Energy (Denmark), Vattenfall (Sweden) and E.on (Germany) are the leading operators. On the supply side, Siemens and Vestas are the leading turbine suppliers, accounting for more than 90% of today’s installation. Several more companies have now entered the market, among them the three German suppliers REpower, Bard and Areva Wind, the Chinese Sinovel and the Finnish WinWind. In China and Korea more than ten manufacturers have announced their intention to enter the offshore wind market.
Huge challenges ahead
The report analyses the challenges facing the offshore industry. Of these the most important is to make offshore wind power competitive with traditional electricity generation technologies. This means that the cost of electricity will have to be reduced by some 30% over the next few years. Other challenges include the fact that newly available offshore sites are in deeper water, further from the coast, the design of new turbines in the 5-10 MW bracket and the need for major improvements in the logistics of installation and operation & maintenance.
Offshore wind’s future contribution and China’s role
In the context of overall wind power development, the report projects that offshore wind will reach 22% of total installed wind capacity in Europe by 2020 and account for around 12% in China by the same time. China is ramping up its emerging offshore industry at an impressive pace.
Offshore wind power’s contribution in terms of electricity supplied will be even higher because better wind speeds are available offshore compared to on land.
See the Press Release in Danish here
For further information contact:
BTM Consult ApS, I.C.Christensens Allé 1, DK 6900 Ringkoebing, Denmark – www.btm.dk
Phone: +45 97 32 52 99 Senior Consultants/Partners: Per Krogsgaard or Birger T. Madsen
BTM Consult ApS is an acknowledged market analyst of the wind power sector. For the past 15 years BTM-C has published its annual International World Market Update, the most recent being WMU 2009 (March 2010). Offshore Wind 2010 is one of BTM-C’s series of special reports covering a more specific aspect of the international wind power industry.